Let’s talk about planting….

5 Jun

I keep seeing new acres going in….some new beds being constructed and some renovations. I get it. Every farmer’s goal in life is to have the highest production for the lowest annual costs. Efficiency. But lets think about the industry and this thing called supply and demand.

*The industry’s sales growth over the past 18-20 years has been averaging 1-2% a year. (According to CMC charts, in barrels)

*A 1% growth in acreage on an 80 acre marsh is .8 acre/year. Save them up and renovate a 4 acre bed every 5 years. 1000 acre marsh is 10 acres a year.

*if you are planting/renovating varieties with average production at the rate of 1-2%a year, then you’re keeping up with the sales increase. A reasonable thing to do.

*if you are planting/renovating new varieties with double the average production, at more than the rate of 1-2% a year, you are contributing to the oversupply. Why?

*the smallish 2017 crop is proof that supply matters. Prices are up in SDCS and concentrate. These increases had little to do with the 2017 marketing order as little fruit has been disposed of yet. Thank you Mother Nature.

One thing I will ALWAYs do from here on out is pay attention to the CMC numbers and the amount of carry-out inventory. In the chart below, it is easy to see why, finally, the CMC voted for a marketing order in both 1999 and 2016 for ensuing crops. In my mind, the correct percentage of carry out is between 50 and 75%. Lower than that and we won’t have product to grow markets, above 75% gets us low prices. And above 100% is just dumb. The CMC estimates that with a set aside we will get to the low 80% range. We should all be thankful that the CMC had the courage to recognize the problem and do something. The USDA has not signed the final order and the proposed order has some issues BUT, it should get us closer to the desirable inventory levels.

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It is up to us growers to pay attention and exercise some restraint in our planting /renovations.

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One Response to “Let’s talk about planting….”

  1. jeff Bentz June 8, 2018 at 7:59 am #

    its called last man standing

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