I’m thinking the concentrate auction results were good news! The starting auction prices were 11.90, 12.16, $12.77 and the final prices after 7 rounds of bidding were $14.65, $12.91 and $15.02. All up above the last auction. Am I missing something here? Clearly those prices are not good enough for the grower, but up is up and that is better than down.
But on another note, in looking at this slide that Scott Soares showed at the Cranberry Institute meeting in March it seems like our 2014 carryin didn’t have an huge supply of whole frozen fruit or processed goods, but a large supply of concentrate. If I’m reading this right at 8/31/14 we had a carry in of 2.6mm barrels of whole frozen fruit. That is the frozen fruit that would carry us unitl the 2014 crop is sufficiently frozen and ready in January-february 2015. Given that we have capacity to dry about 8mm barrels of cranberries into SDCs, (my estimate) the 2mm barrels of carry in seems about right or even light. That would suggest an interesting tightening of the SDC market. That along with a good not great crop in 2014, and a government purchase that will absorb 400,000 bbls…the CMC numbers that are about to be reported as of today 4/30 will tell an interesting story.