unofficial, but from a bidder shows the results in the $28 range for the next 3 periods. That seems like quite a jump to me, from the last auction, but I will have to look back and see some history.
check out the new OS ad running for the next two weeks….
In a letter to Ocean Spray grower owners, Ocean Spray confirmed their earlier estimates of an industry wide crop of 9.7mm barrels, up 12% from 2010. This estimate is actually down from their preharvest forcast of 9.9mm barrels. Ocean Spray does not expect this 9.7mm barrels to have the same negative effect that the record 9.8mm barrel crop had in 2008, mainly due to a significant growth in usage which was up 7% for the 2010 crop. They expect a reduction in overall cranberry inventories. Specifically, they project an independent crop of 4.3mm barrels, up from 3.8mm barrels in 2010.
They are expecting an overall increase in OS grower yields, with the biggest increase in Massachusetts, where they are expecting a record overall crop of 2.3mm barrels.
Interestingly, OS states that the quality of the crop is not looking as good as prior years, as the brix and color are down. This may impact their yields and concentrate production.
I appreciate Ocean Spray’s insight on the crop. If I can get permission to post the actual letter, I will do so next week.
This is part of a print ad and tv ad campaign that V8 has going on, trying to convert smoothie and cranberry juice drinkers. What about their high salt and hypertension?
Wisconsin’s beautiful, warm weather has come to an end. Light rain, temps still warmer and harvest has started for most growers. I’m hearing that the crop in Wisconsin is a good, solid crop, but maybe down a bit, like 5%. Time will tell!
Oh, and the Brewers need to get going. Seriously.
I talked to a few handlers today and yesterday. They all say that “the phone is ringing off the hook” for cranberries…..yay! Unfortunately, the buyers aren’t offering $50/barrel, but the price is ticking upwards. This is good news, yet we as growers don’t know if that will get passed on to us. One handler said that the mid twenties number being thrown around takes into consideration the increased demand already. We will see!
On a personal note, our first two beds are down 13% from last year….Stevens. Still an excellent yield, but down.
Finally, it was a BEAUTIFUL day in Wisconsin. Just perfect, except for the Brewers. Come on BrewCrew!
In a recent email to potential bidders in their upcoming concentrate auction, Ocean Spray updated their projections for the size of the 2011 crop and said that the crop still looks good, but they are lowering North American crop estimates (Ocean Spray and independent) from about 9.7 mm barrels down to about 9.54 million barrels. Last year’s North American crop was 8.470mm barrels.
They also pointed out that industry wide, sales are up 630,000 barrels vs last year and they expect year end carry over in August 2012 to be down almost 530,000 barrels vs this year. That is a projected decrease in carryover of 11.5%.
My thoughts on this? As growers, we don’t usually don’t get too excited about carryover, but to our handlers, the size of the crop being carried over from year to year is a big deal. They need enough cranberries to keep plants running, and they need cranberries in the right form..ie concentrate vs whole frozen berries. When there is too much carryover, we get paid less. This year, their seems to be too much concentrate and not enough whole frozen berries.
Ocean Spray didn’t say what growing region is being adjusted down in their crop analysis. If the above holds true, it seems that we, as an industry could be moving towards a balanced supply and demand. The gazillion dollar question, is, what does that mean for our independent prices?
I know everyone is busy with harvest, but if you get a chance, let us know what you’re seeing out there!